Quarterly Fundraising Report™

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Dollars, donors, and retention rates remain stable since Q2 2021.
Q3 data helps confirm that trends in Q2 2021 were merely a correction, and not the beginning of a new downward trend.
Small increase in dollars along with a small decrease in donors suggests greater impact of large donors going forward
Drop in donors which donate 3-6 times and increase in donors which donate 7+ times. The most frequent donors are stepping up.


DONORS -1.4% (+/- 3.5%) YOY change	DOLLARS 1.4% (+/- 3%) YOY change	RETENTION -7.2% (+/- 0.5%) YOY change

Visit https://data.givingtuesday.org/fep-report/ for the most detailed version of this report, which includes additional data splits and organization-focused insights.
We measure year-over-year change of year-to-date data. I.e. we take data through the current quarter for this year, and divide by data through the same quarter last year.
*Note: A significant amount of data arrives late, so we estimate the difference for top-line metrics by reviewing historical patterns of delayed data ('data drift'). Ranges for each metric express uncertainty in the estimates.

Our Dataset

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Limitations

Data is limited to orgs with >= 3 years of data, with limited growth/loss constraints.
Data is weighted across size and NTEE code for orgs raising between $5K-$25M.
Some data are recorded late (e.g., ~7% of Q1 is recorded Q2-Q4).


DONORS 12M in 2021	DOLLARS $6B in 2021	ORGANIZATIONS 9,635 in 2021

Revenue and retention metrics report on year-to-date (YTD) performance compared against the prior year total, based on a panel* of organizations selected from the Growth in Giving Database of 241 million transactions from more than 20,000 organizations since 2005.

Donors: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate slightly negative Q3 YOY donor growth at -1.4% when all donations are eventually recorded*.

		The massive decline seen in Q2 is not replicated this quarter Indicative of stabilization, not the beginning of a downward trend

NOTE: The panel for each year differs based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: Percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: Percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Donors by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

All donor sizes show YOY decline, with midsize and large donors showing less decline
Decline by donor size is larger than anticipated total donor decline - likely due to late reporting
Larger donors have historically reported data later than smaller donors
Historical trends would suggest a decrease in micro donors after full reporting


MICRO ($1 - $100) -6.2% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -6.2% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -3.4% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -4.6% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -9.2% YOY Change
58.0% % of total donors	27.8% % of total donors	12.0% % of total donors	1.9% % of total donors	0.3% % of total donors

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total. Estimates for late data only apply to top-line donors, dollars, and retention. Thus, these more granular breakdowns underestimate year-over-year growth.

Donors by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Year-over-year rates remain unchanged from Q2 2021.
Increase in new-retained donors and a decrease in repeat-retained and new donors.
Decrease in YOY recapture rate is not suprising given the historic recapture in 2020.


NEW DONORS -10.3% YTD Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 20.9% YTD Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS -12.9% YTD Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -4.3% YTD Change
40.8% % of total donors	10.8% % of total donors	36.0% % of total donors	12.4% % of total donors

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Donor by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

One and two-time donation rates down YOY but stable since Q2 2021
Most frequent donors (7+) make up a larger share of donors, up from 2.5% last quarter
Semi-frequent donors (3-6) make up a smaller share of donors, down from 14.6% last quarter
A significant amount of semi-frequent donors are stepping up


1 DONATION -5.4% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -11.1% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -12.5% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS 5.3% YOY Change
71.0% % of total donors	11.8% % of total donors	8.4% % of total donors	8.4% % of total donors

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count segments were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across segments.

Dollars: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate that when all donations are eventually recorded, Q3 YOY growth in dollars will be 1.4%*.

		Stabilization of dollars in line with the trends in donor metrics Dollars are more impacted by late data than donors, due to late reporting in the largest donation sizes.

NOTE: The panel for each year differs, based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. This graph highlights what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs. last year. This graph highlights the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Dollars by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

All donor types show a decline in dollars - likely due to data reporting delays.
We expect larger donation sizes to report lower growth - size and delay in data reporting are correlated.
Compared to previous quarters in 2021, we see relative increases in the midsize and supersize segments
We expect the largest relative drop to be in the micro-segment once all data is reported


MICRO ($1 - $100) -6.8% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -6.0% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -2.8% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -7.0% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -4.6% YOY Change
3.4% % of total dollars	6.9% % of total dollars	16.7% % of total dollars	25.7% % of total dollars	47.4% % of total dollars

Donor size is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date dollars given. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total. Estimates for late data only apply to top-line donors, dollars, and retention. Thus, these more granular breakdowns underestimate year-over-year growth.

Dollars by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Donor behaviors remain stable and consistent with Q2 2021
New retained donors showed Q3 growth in dollars
Dollar trends largely follow donor trends.


NEW DONORS -13.4% YOY Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 15.0% YOY Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS -5.7% YOY Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -4.8% YOY Change
19.0% % of total dollars	9.8% % of total dollars	12.1% % of total dollars	59.1% % of total dollars

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Dollars by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Large decrease in donation counts likely due to data that has yet to arrive.
We anticipate these metrics will follow top-line dollars and level out slightly positive


1 DONATION -1.8% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -10.4% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -7.1% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -10.7% YOY Change
57.5% % of total dollars	16.0% % of total dollars	16.3% % of total dollars	10.2% % of total dollars

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count segments were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across segments.

Retention Rate: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Retention rates remain abnormally low in 2021. We estimate that retention will land around -7.2% through Q3 after full reporting.

		One possible explanation is the also high org-dropout rate

NOTE: The panel for each year differs, based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Retention Rate: Donor Type

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

In 2020, 'new' donors spiked due to new and shifted giving to COVID-related causes.
Through Q3 2021, we still see increased retention of these 2020 new donors (+1.9%).
This follows the same trend noticed earlier in the year.
The drop in recaptured donor rate is expected after historic recapture last year.


NEW DONOR RETENTION RATE 1.9% YOY Change	REPEAT DONOR RETENTION RATE -6.9% YOY Change	RECAPTURE RATE -18.4% YOY Change
18.6% retained YTD	62.1% retained YTD	19.3% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
REPEAT DONORS - donors who gave last year to the organization, and were not new last year.
RECAPTURED DONORS - donors who did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past

Retention Rate by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Large drop in donor retention from 2021 Q1 to Q2 is not repeated in Q3
However, small and micro-donor retention remains low


MICRO $1-$100 -12.4% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -5.8% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -0.7% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -7.2% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -11.2% YOY Change
21.8% retained YTD	37.2% retained YTD	48.1% retained YTD	50.3% retained YTD	54.6% retained YTD

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total.

Retention Rate by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Last quarter, retention rates dropped drastically in the least frequent donors
This quarter the pattern continues, with the most retained donors being the most frequent


1 DONATION -13.8% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -12.4% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -7.1% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -1.8% YOY Change
18.5% retained YTD	38.1% retained YTD	62.6% retained YTD	88.0% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Organizations

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Trends observed in Q2 2021 keep up in this quarter
Organization size matters more in 2021, as small orgs keep gaining and large orgs are flat or pulling back.
Organization cause matters less in 2021, as fundraising normalizes away from COVID.
Orgs not reporting data keeps increasing in Q3, increasing confidence that there are true long-term impacts to fundraising operations post-2020.


Organization Size Impact 11% YOY Change Size matters more than in 2020	Organization Cause Impact -38% YOY Change Cause matters less than in 2020	Organizations Not Reporting 211% YOY Change More orgs did not report in 2021

Our 'impact' metrics measure the importance of size and cause on organization results. These are meant to be more directional than quantitative, but numbers help track these trends year-over-year.

Organization Size Impact: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization size still impacts fundraising more than in 2020 However, as trends stabilize, this impact is beginning to decrease

		With slow reporting on large donors, which drives results for large organization, these data still can change and should be interpreted cautiously.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Size Impact: Splits

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Fundraising by size remains similiar to Q2 2021, indicating a return towards 'normal'.
Smaller organizations are fundraising more strongly in 2021 vs 2020.
Larger organizations are fundraising less strongly in 2021 vs 2020.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this organization size.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth across each organization of this organization size.

Organization Cause: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Relative impact of organization cause remains low year-over-year. This is not surprising given the importance of organization cause in 2020.

		Cause-based disparity remains low relative to 2020 as it has been all year.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Cause: Split

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization causes like 'Art, Culture, and Humanities' & 'Environment and Animals' show the highest YOY gains.
Organization causes like 'Health', 'Religion', and 'Public/Social Benefit' show the highest YOY losses.
These year-over-year figures show general reversals from 2020 trends

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this NTEE major group.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth across each organization of this NTEE major group.

Organizations Not Reporting: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q3 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - SEPT 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Last year, we saw organizations leave our dataset within the year for the first time. This year, we have yet to receive fundraising information for ~2.5% of panel orgs.

		We tentatively suspect that abnormally high dropout rates are due to the impact of covid on fundraising and reporting. The nature and rate of dropout warrants deeper investigation in future reports. Click here for more details.

NOTE: We only look at organizations within the panel of a given year based on our panel rules: stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year. This ensures consistent historical data & shields the results from outliers.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on month totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent of organization drop-out in each month. Organizations may drop out one month, and then return in a subsequent month.

FUNDRAISING EFFECTIVENESS PROJECT

The Fundraising Effectiveness Project (first established in 2006) and the Growth in Giving database (created in 2012) are both administered jointly by the Association of Fundraising Professionals and GivingTuesday. The Growth in Giving database is the world’s largest public record of donation activity, with more than 241 million donation transactions, and is continuously updated by top fundraising software partners (in alphabetical order) Bloomerang, DonorPerfect, and NeonCRM. Additional partners include the 7th Day Adventists, The Biedermann Group, DataLake Nonprofit Research, and DonorTrends (a division of EveryAction). For more information and how you or your fundraising software provider can participate, please visit www.afpfep.org

METHODOLOGY

We removed organizations that did not have a minimum of 25 donors and $5,000 in revenue in each of the previous three years. We removed organizations at either tail of the revenue growth curve. If revenue growth was more than 300% or less than -66% in any of the past three years, organizations were removed. We weighted our data by organization size and NTEE major group to make it reflective of 2018 IRS filers in the $5K - $25M range of contributions. In 2018, there were 222K IRS filers in this contributions range and passing our growth and size filters, making this report representative of 4.3% of the total relevant filers. Details regarding estimation methodology for data drift (late reported data) can be found here.




DATA PROVIDERS The FEP wouldn’t be possible without data. These software providers make the collection of data for this analysis possible.




DATA REPORTING The Quarterly Report wouldn’t be possible without the data processing and analytics provided by these firms.