Quarterly Fundraising Report™

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Fundraising in Q2 2021 keeps up with the impressive levels shown in Q2 2020*
New donors from 2020 show high retention, but overall recapture rates have dropped towards pre-pandemic levels.
Results by size and cause suggest a return towards pre-COVID fundraising along those dimensions.
Up to 4% of organizations we analyze have not reported data since late 2020, indicating reduced operations from 2020 to 2021.


DONORS 0.7% (+/- 2%) YOY change	DOLLARS 1.7% (+/- 2%) YOY change	RETENTION -7.2% (+/- 0.5%) YOY change

Visit https://data.givingtuesday.org/fep-report/ for the most detailed version of this report, which includes additional data splits and organization-focused insights.
We measure year-over-year change of year-to-date data. I.e. we take data through the current quarter for this year, and divide by data through the same quarter last year.
*Note: A significant amount of data arrives late, so we estimate the difference for top-line metrics by reviewing historical patterns of delayed data ('data drift'). Ranges for each metric express uncertainty in the estimates.

Our Dataset

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Limitations

Data is limited to orgs with >= 3 years of data, with limited growth/loss constraints.
Data is weighted across size and NTEE code for orgs raising between $5K-$25M.
Some data are recorded late (e.g., ~4% of Q1 is recorded Q2-Q4).


DONORS 8M in 2021	DOLLARS $4B in 2021	ORGANIZATIONS 9,618 in 2021

Revenue and retention metrics report on year-to-date (YTD) performance compared against the prior year total, based on a panel* of organizations selected from the Growth in Giving Database of 241 million transactions from more than 20,000 organizations since 2005.

Donors: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Early 2021 gains have pulled back, with total 2021 fundraising being comparable to that in 2020. With all Q1 & Q2 data not yet reported, we estimate Q2 YOY donor growth will be slightly positive*.

		Given that Q1 was ahead, this indicates less fundraising vs 2020 going into Q3.

NOTE: The panel for each year differs based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: Percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: Percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Donors by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

All donor sizes show YOY decline, with smaller donors showing less decline
With total donors estimated to show slightly positive YOY growth, much of this is likely due to late data
Larger donors have historically reported data later than smaller donors


MICRO ($1 - $100) -4.3% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -7.0% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -5.6% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -8.8% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -13.6% YOY Change
59.9% % of total donors	27.3% % of total donors	10.9% % of total donors	1.6% % of total donors	0.2% % of total donors

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total.

Donors by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

New retained donors still show growth - but no longer driven by high retention rates.
Repeat-retained and new donors are down.
We saw historic recapture in 2020, so a small drop in 2021 is not surprising.


NEW DONORS -9.1% YTD Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 22.9% YTD Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS -14.8% YTD Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -4.6% YTD Change
37.7% % of total donors	11.4% % of total donors	38.9% % of total donors	12.1% % of total donors

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Donor by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Most types of one-time and repeat donor growth are flat or negative.
Repeat donors that include monthly recurring donors are up at least 2% YOY.


1 DONATION -6.0 YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -9.5% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS 2.1% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -7.1% YOY Change
71.8% % of total donors	11.1% % of total donors	14.6% % of total donors	2.5% % of total donors

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count segments were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across segments.

Dollars: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate that, when all donations are eventually recorded, Q2 YOY growth in dollars will be ~1.7%*. Dollars are more impacted by late data than donors, due to late reporting in the largest donation sizes.

		This estimated flatness in dollars growth is consistent with what we estimate for donors.

NOTE: The panel for each year differs, based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. This graph highlights what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs. last year. This graph highlights the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Dollars by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

All donor types show drops in dollars due to data reporting delays.
We estimate total dollar YOY growth will be positive when late Q2 data is reported in Q3 and Q4.
We expect larger donation sizes to report lower growth - size and delay in data reporting are correlated.
However, supersize ($50k+) donations buck this trend, suggesting that giving in this donor segment is up.


MICRO ($1 - $100) -5.1% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -7.3% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -6.6% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -10.8% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -5.7% YOY Change
3.9% % of total dollars	7.3% % of total dollars	16.5% % of total dollars	25.8% % of total dollars	46.4% % of total dollars

Donor size is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date dollars given. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total.

Dollars by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

New retained donors showed Q2 growth in dollars and donors.
There are discrepancies between donor and dollar growth across other segments.
These discrepancies should largely resolve as more Q2 large donor data arrives.


NEW DONORS -15.6% YOY Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 18.4% YOY Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS -7.5% YOY Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -9.5% YOY Change
18.4% % of total dollars	10.6% % of total dollars	58.2% % of total dollars	12.7% % of total dollars

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Dollars by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Apparent drops in repeat donor dollars are most likely late reporting.
We expect these data to arrive in Q3 and Q4.


1 DONATION -4.6% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -13.1% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -5.8% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -18.9% YOY Change
62.4% % of total dollars	15.3% % of total dollars	15.5% % of total dollars	6.8% % of total dollars

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count segments were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across segments.

Retention Rate: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate that retention will land around -7.2% through Q2 after full reporting.

		We expected some decline, as repeat/recurring donors are accounted for in Q1. However, this level of drop is likely due to high org-dropout rates

NOTE: The panel for each year differs, based on our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the Growth in Giving database). This ensures consistent historical data & avoids biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Retention Rate: Donor Type

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

In 2020, 'new' donors spiked due to new and shifted giving to COVID-related causes.
Through Q2 2021, we still see increased retention of these 2020 new donors (+3.5%).
This was a surprise for this traditionally challenging segment.
The drop in recaptured donor rate is expected after historic recapture last year.


NEW DONOR RETENTION RATE 3.5% YOY Change	REPEAT DONOR RETENTION RATE -7.2% YOY Change	RECAPTURE RATE -20.3% YOY Change
12.3% retained YTD	35.4% retained YTD	2.2% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
REPEAT DONORS - donors who gave last year to the organization, and were not new last year.
RECAPTURED DONORS - donors who did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past

Retention Rate by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

YOY growth in retention of small and micro-donors dropped severely from 2021 Q1 to Q2.
Analysis of large donors is largely blocked by incomplete Q2 data.


MICRO $1-$100 -12.7% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -6.4% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -0.7% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -8.7% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -12.7% YOY Change
17.3% retained YTD	31.6% retained YTD	41.5% retained YTD	41.4% retained YTD	46.1% retained YTD

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size segments were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each segment representing 1-50% of the total.

Retention Rate by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Retention at all repeat rates dropped YOY from Q1 to Q2, except the most frequent donors.


1 DONATION -15.3% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -13.8% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -7.9% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -1.9% YOY Change
13.8% retained YTD	30.4% retained YTD	55.7% retained YTD	87.0% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset).
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Organizations

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization size matters even more in 2021, as small orgs rebound and large orgs are flat or pulling back on some of 2020 gains.
Organization cause matters less in 2020, as fundraising normalizes away from COVID.
Orgs not reporting data increased in Q2, increasing confidence that there are true long-term impacts of fundraising operations post-2020, on top of the slow data reporting.


Organization Size Impact 53% YOY Change Size matters more than in 2020	Organization Cause Impact -45% YOY Change Cause matters less than in 2020	Organizations Not Reporting 230% YOY Change More orgs did not report in 2021

Our 'impact' metrics measure the importance of size and cause on organization results. These are meant to be more directional than quantitative, but numbers help track these trends year-over-year.

Organization Size Impact: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Initial results indicate greater variability by organization size than in 2020. This is due to smaller organizations fundraising more successfully in 2021 vs 2020 and larger organizations fundraising less successfully in 2021 vs 2020, leading to even more size-based disparity in fundraising than in 2020.

		Monthly data are more stable in Q2, as trends were driven by COVID fundraising. With slow reporting on large donors, which drives results for large organization, these data still can change and should be interpreted cautiously.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Size Impact: Splits

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Smaller organizations are fundraising more strongly in 2021 vs 2020.
Larger organizations are fundraising less strongly in 2021 vs 2020.
These trends are in the opposite direction of 2020 trends, indicating a return more towards 'normal'.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this organization size.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth across each organization of this organization size.

Organization Cause: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Fundraising results differed dramatically by cause in 2020, due to shifts to COVID fundraising. Q2 decline in variability by cause indicates that these cause-based disparities are declining vs 2020.

		Q2 decline in variability by cause indicate that this return away from COVID fundraising is temporarily overweight on these non-COVID causes, and underweight on COVID-related causes.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over months, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Cause: Split

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

A number of causes show growth (e.g. Environment & Animals, Education), or small losses (e.g. Arts, Culture & Humanities, International & Foreign Affairs) that likely will be growth after full data reporting.
These are all causes that experienced heavy losses in Q2 2020, as fundraising focused on COVID relief via Human Services and Health (which now show YOY declines).
These trends suggest fundraising is returning to a more baseline state vs Q2 2020.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this NTEE major group.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth across each organization of this NTEE major group.

Organizations Not Reporting: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q2 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - JUN 30, 2021)

Key Insights

Last year, we saw organizations leave our dataset within the year for the first time. This year, drop in reporting is likely due to a mix of organizations that never rejoined the dataset and late reporting of data.

		We expect up to 4% of 2021 organizations may not report in 2021 at all, given that 4% of 2020 organizations still haven't reported Q4 2020 results. The nature and rate of dropout warrants deeper investigation in future reports. Click here for more details.

NOTE: We only look at organizations within the panel of a given year based on our panel rules: stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year. This ensures consistent historical data & shields the results from outliers.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on month totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent of organization drop-out in each month. Organizations may drop out one month, and then return in a subsequent month.

FUNDRAISING EFFECTIVENESS PROJECT

The Fundraising Effectiveness Project (first established in 2006) and the Growth in Giving database (created in 2012) are both administered jointly by the Association of Fundraising Professionals and GivingTuesday. The Growth in Giving database is the world’s largest public record of donation activity, with more than 241 million donation transactions, and is continuously updated by top fundraising software partners (in alphabetical order) Bloomerang, DonorPerfect, and NeonCRM. Additional partners include the 7th Day Adventists, The Biedermann Group, DataLake Nonprofit Research, and DonorTrends (a division of EveryAction). For more information and how you or your fundraising software provider can participate, please visit www.afpfep.org

METHODOLOGY

We removed organizations that did not have a minimum of 25 donors and $5,000 in revenue in each of the previous three years. We removed organizations at either tail of the revenue growth curve. If revenue growth was more than 300% or less than -66% in any of the past three years, organizations were removed. We weighted our data by organization size and NTEE major group to make it reflective of 2018 IRS filers in the $5K - $25M range of contributions. In 2018, there were 222K IRS filers in this contributions range and passing our growth and size filters, making this report representative of 3.6% of the total relevant filers.




DATA PROVIDERS The FEP wouldn’t be possible without data. These software providers make the collection of data for this analysis possible.




DATA REPORTING The Quarterly Report wouldn’t be possible without the data processing and analytics provided by these firms.