Quarterly Fundraising Report™

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

2020 donor growth continues with the highest Q1 donors growth ever seen in our data.
Retained donors fuel donor growth, including a 13.6% increase in new donor retention.
We estimate dollar YOY growth to be 6%, when all Q1 data are in*.
Our new methods and data splits are key to interpreting - read more in our blog!


DONORS 10% (+/- 2%) YOY change	DOLLARS 6% (+/- 2%) YOY change	RETENTION 1.0% (+/- 0.5%) YOY change

Visit https://data.givingtuesday.org/fep-report/ for an interactive version of this report, with additional data splits and organization-focused insights.
We measure year-over-year change of year-to-date data. I.e. we take data through the current quarter for this year, and divide by data through the same quarter last year.
*Note: We estimate these metrics by reviewing historical patterns of delayed data ('data drift') using multiple methods. The range shared accounts for uncertainty in data drift.

Our Dataset

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Limitations

Data is limited to orgs with >= 3 years of data, with limited growth/loss constraints.
Data is weighted across size and NTEE code for orgs raising between $5K-$25M.
Some data are recorded late (e.g. ~4% of Q1 is recorded Q2-Q4)


DONORS 2.5M in 2021	DOLLARS $1.9B in 2021	ORGANIZATIONS 9,561 in 2021

Revenue and retention metrics report on year-to-date (YTD) performance compared against the prior year total, based on a panel* of organizations selected from the Growth in Giving Database of 241 million transactions from more than 20,000 organizations since 2005.

Donors: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

The number of donors grew the most across all 10 years of data available (6.2% reported). With all Q1 data not yet reported, we estimate Q1 YOY donor growth will hit 10%*.

		The smallest donations (with 90% of the donors) a higher percentage of online and recurring donations, and we therefore get data sooner / have less data drift than with dollars.

NOTE: The panel for each year is updated, according to our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the GiG dataset). This ensures have consistent historical data & avoid biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Donors by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

The smallest donors grew more than ever before.
We anticipate shifts in larger donors as more data are reported.
To date we see the largest 1.5% of donors bringing in 71% of the dollars.


MICRO ($1 - $100) 8.4% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) 6.9% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -3.2% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -9.4% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -8.6% YOY Change
64.4% % of total donors	25.6% % of total donors	8.5% % of total donors	1.3% % of total donors	0.2% % of total donors

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size buckets were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each bucket representing 1-50% of the total.

Donors by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

New-retained donors - usually the hardest segment - had explosive YOY growth in Q1.
This comes from new donor growth in 2020 and new donor retention up 13.6% in 2021.
Repeat-retained and new donors were also up.
We saw historic recapture in 2020, so a small drop in 2021 is not surprising.


NEW DONORS 3.0% YTD Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 34.5% YTD Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS 5.5% YTD Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -2.8% YTD Change
30.0% % of total donors	12.9% % of total donors	45.7% % of total donors	11.4% % of total donors

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset)
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Donor by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Growth is mixed between one-time and repeat donors.
We are surprised to see highly repetitive donors (e.g. weekly) to be likely late reporting.


1 DONATION 4.6% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS 14.2% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS 10.5% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -33.3% YOY Change
64.5% % of total donors	20.5% % of total donors	12.8% % of total donors	2.2% % of total donors

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count buckets were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across buckets.

Dollars: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate that, with full data reporting, Q1 YOY growth in dollars will be 6%*. Dollars are more impacted by late data than donors, due to late reporting in the largest donation sizes.

		Note that late data reporting affects 2020 results as well: Dollars increased 2% (from 5.2% to 7.2%) since GivingTuesday published their 2020 Lookback report.

NOTE: The panel for each year is updated, according to our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the GiG dataset). This ensures have consistent historical data & avoid biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. This graph highlights what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. This graph highlights the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Dollars by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

The smallest donors show large dollars growth, largely because the number of small donors grew.
Mid- and large donors failed to show dollar growth, likely because of donor data that has not yet arrived.
We expect these numbers will change later this year as Q1 data continue to arrive.


MICRO ($1 - $100) 9.7% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) 4.4% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) -7.9% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -7.8% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -3.5% YOY Change
4.7% % of total dollars	7.6% % of total dollars	16.1% % of total dollars	25.4% % of total dollars	46.1% % of total dollars

Donor size is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date dollars given. Donor size buckets were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each bucket representing 1-50% of the total.

Dollars by Life Cycle

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

New-retained donors showed Q1 growth in dollars and donors.
Discrepency between donor and dollar will change as more Q1 large donor data arrives.
New, repeat-retained, and recaptured dollar drops will also likely change.
We recommend focusing on donor information in Q1 and Q2.


NEW DONORS -9.9% YOY Change	NEW RETAINED DONORS 15.3% YOY Change	REPEAT RETAINED DONORS -1.2% YOY Change	RECAPTURED DONORS -6.2% YOY Change
16.4% % of total dollars	10.6% % of total dollars	58.6% % of total dollars	14.4% % of total dollars

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset)
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Dollars by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Q1 data indicate that repeat donor records are most likely to be late reporting.
We believe little more can be gleaned from this split in Q1.


1 DONATION 0.8% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -11.3% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -12.5% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -26.2% YOY Change
69.9% % of total dollars	14.5% % of total dollars	11.2% % of total dollars	4.4% % of total dollars

Donation count is computed on a donor’s total year-to-date donations given. Donation count buckets were chosen based on distribution of total donors and dollars across buckets.

Retention Rate: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

We estimate that retention will land around 1.0% in Q1 after full reporting.

		Retention tends to decline over the year, as repeat/recurring donors are accounted for in Q1. Thus, we think this growth indicates shifts in giving to repeat/recurring giving.

NOTE: The panel for each year is updated, according to our panel rules (stable organizations over the past 3 years w/ $5K - $25M received in the prior year, via the GiG dataset). This ensures have consistent historical data & avoid biasing past results by filtering on future data.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Retention Rate: Donor Type

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

In 2020, 'new' donors spiked due to new and shifted giving to COVID-related causes.
In Q1 2021, we saw a spike in retention of these 2020 new donors (+13.6%)
This was a surprise for this traditionally challenging segment.
The drop in recaptured donor rate is expected after historic recapture last year.


NEW DONOR RETENTION RATE 13.6% YOY Change	REPEAT DONOR RETENTION RATE 2.5% YOY Change	RECAPTURE RATE -12.3% YOY Change
8.1% retained YTD	24.2% retained YTD	1.2% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset)
REPEAT DONORS - donors who gave last year to the organization, and were not new last year.
RECAPTURED DONORS - donors who did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past

Retention Rate by Donor Size

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Analysis is largely blocked by incomplete Q1 data.


MICRO $1-$100 0.9% YOY Change	SMALL ($101 - $500) -1.2% YOY Change	MIDSIZE ($501 - $5K) 1.3% YOY Change	MAJOR ($5K - $50K) -8.8% YOY Change	SUPERSIZE ($50K+) -11.8% YOY Change
10.4% retained YTD	22.3% retained YTD	30.8% retained YTD	27.5% retained YTD	31.1% retained YTD

All year-over-year (YOY) changes are computed on year-to-date (YTD) totals. Donor size buckets were chosen to span both dollars and donors, with each bucket representing 1-50% of the total.

Retention Rate by Donation Count

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Retention rates by last year's # gifts are universally down YOY.
Overall retention is up due to donors shifting towards higher retention buckets.
Retention rates will continue to increase as late data continue to arrive.


1 DONATION -5.0% YOY Change	2 DONATIONS -3.8% YOY Change	3-6 DONATIONS -3.0% YOY Change	7+ DONATIONS -2.9% YOY Change
7.2% retained YTD	17.2% retained YTD	40.0% retained YTD	83.2% retained YTD

NEW DONORS - never gave to this organization before (in this dataset)
NEW RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but never before.
REPEAT RETAINED DONORS - gave last year to the organization, but not for the first time.
RECAPTURED DONORS - did not give last year to the organization, but had given in the past.

Organizations

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization size and cause were critical factors to benchmark fundraising in 2020.
As in 2020, Human Services and Religious causes are up; others are down.
Orgs not reporting data increased in Q1; this may change as late Q1 data arrive by Q4.


Organization Size Impact -17.5% YOY Change Size matters less than in 2020	Organization Cause Impact -24.6% YOY Change Cause matters less than in 2020	Organizations Not Reporting 221.6% YOY Change More orgs did not report in 2021

Our 'impact' metrics measure the importance of size and cause on organization results. These are meant to be more directional than quantitative, but numbers help track these trends year-over-year.

Organization Size Impact: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization size cannot be interpreted on dollars, because it is so strongly driven by large donors. Current data are driven by small donors, who could act differently.

		As you can see, monthly data are still changing rapidly. We recommend care and patience in interpretation in Q1.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Size Impact: Splits

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

We provide organization size splits on dollars raised, for transparency.
We will be able to interpret these data after we analyze data drift by org size in Q2.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this organization size.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth, across each organization of this organization size.

Organization Cause: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Organization cause variability exploded in 2020, due to shifts to COVID fundraising. Initial results suggest that similar disparities have largely remained.

		Examining the organization cause splits shows very similar patterns to 2020.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent year-over-year change (on YTD totals) by month, this vs last year. Shows the evolution of changes over month, and how they compare this year to last.

Organization Cause: Split

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

We provide organization cause splits on dollars raised, for transparency.
Human Services continues to thrive, while other sectors continue contraction.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEAN) - Year-over-year dollar growth for all organizations of this NTEE major group.

% DOLLAR GROWTH (MEDIAN) - The median year-over-year dollar growth, across each organization of this NTEE major group.

Organizations Not Reporting: Time Series

Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends
Q1 2021 (JAN 1, 2021 - MAR 31, 2021)

Key Insights

Last year, we saw panel organizations leave our dataset within the year, for the first time. This year, drop in org reporting is likely due to late reporting of data.

		Nonetheless, we see around 8% of our panel organizations not yet reporting data. Overall positive trends of Q2 lead us to expect the 2020 trend has ended. We should have clarity / data in Q2 to see if the 2020 trend ended or not.

UPPER: percent year-over-year change (on month totals) through this quarter, over the last 5 years. Shows what’s typical across years.

LOWER: percent of organization drop-out in each month. Organizations may drop out one month, and then return in a subsequent month.

FUNDRAISING EFFECTIVENESS PROJECT

The Fundraising Effectiveness Project (first established in 2006) and the Growth in Giving database (created in 2012) are both administered jointly by the Association of Fundraising Professionals and GivingTuesday. The Growth in Giving database is the world’s largest public record of donation activity, with more than 241 million donation transactions, and is continuously updated by top fundraising software partners (in alphabetical order) Bloomerang, DonorPerfect, and NeonCRM. Additional partners include the 7th Day Adventists, The Biedermann Group, DataLake Nonprofit Research, and DonorTrends (a division of EveryAction). For more information and how you or your fundraising software provider can participate, please visit www.afpfep.org

METHODOLOGY

We removed organizations that did not have a minimum of 25 donors and $5,000 in revenue in each of the previous three years. We removed organizations at either tail of the growth curve for donors and dollars. If revenue growth was more than 300% or less than -66% in any of the past three years, organizations were removed. We weighted our data by organization size and NTEE major group, to make it reflective of 2018 IRS filers in the $5K - $25M range of contributions. In 2018, there were 222K IRS filers in this contributions range and passing our growth and size filters, making this report representative of 3.6% of the total relevant filers.




DATA PROVIDERS The FEP wouldn’t be possible without data. These software providers make the collection of data for this analysis possible.



DATA REPORTING The Quarterly Report wouldn’t be possible without the data processing and analytics provided by these firms.